The fourth matchday of the 2023/24 Champions League season starts today, and it’s a very important one indeed, because qualification is at the door. The first three matchdays gave us some definitive answers on teams’ forms, and on others who did not perform as well. Some teams will even have the chance to qualify with a result today, while other could potentially crash out. Will the underdogs fight out a win, or will the big dogs take over? Let’s find out and dive straight in!
Group F: Borussia Dortmund – Newcastle United, Tuesday, 18:45 CET, Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund
The group of death gives us another amazing match, as Dortmund and Newcastle have a big chance for qualification today. The Geordies visit the Signal Iduna for the first time in their history, and will face the Yellow Wall. The two teams are in opposing forms, as Dortmund were demolished by Bayern in Der Klassiker. Newcastle on the other hand handed Arsenal a controversial win on Saturday, and come into this clash high on confidence. This is a very important game, especially is PSG come out winners at the San Siro tonight. If that happens and either of these sides come out victorious, they will have a massive opportunity to qualify. Borussia Dortmund have, except for Der Klassiker, been very solid defensively so far this season. They have kept 6 clean sheets this season in the Bundesliga and Champions League, coming out 0-1 winners in Newcastle. Dortmund are joint third in the league after the Bayern loss, and well poised to make a top 4 finish. Newcastle have been up and down in the CL, drawing against Milan, thrashing PSG at home and losing to Dortmund. This is an important game for them, as they go to Paris in the next matchday. Dortmund are slight favourites here, as they haven’t lost at home in CL for almost two years. We highly suggest a 1.52 double chance on Dortmund. Newcastle won’t go down without a fight however, as they’ve been a pesky side to face for all big sides.
What to look out for: Newcastle are facing a bit of an injury crisis at the moment: Targett, Barnes, Burn, Botman and Isak are all missing, while Tonali is suspended due to betting allegations. This may play a key role in this match, as Dortmund are only missing midfielder Emre Can for this clash.
Borussia Dortmund to Win – 2.80
Draw – 3.50
Newcastle United to Win – 2.45
Group F: AC Milan – PSG, Tuesday, 21:00 CET, San Siro, Milan
The other match is perhaps even more important for the dynamics of the group of death, as AC Milan face PSG. Last time out, Milan lost 3-0 at the Parc des Princes in what was a lacklustre performance by the Rossoneri. Since then, AC Milan have failed to win, drawing to Napoli and losing at home to Udinese this weekend. On the other hand, PSG have won five straight games, since their huge loss to Newcastle in early October. They have scored three goals in each of those matches, keeping three clean sheets in the process. This is a huge match for both teams. Milan need a result to stay in the race to qualify, and PSG can consolidate top spot with three points. Each right flank will be crucial in this match, where Mbappe will take on Calabria, and Leao will face Hakimi. This is where the game winning plays will ultimately come from. PSG are favourites in this one, but a draw would not be a surprise, and would probably satisfy both sides. Milan will really need to shore up their defence, as PSG have been on fire offensively in recent games. Whether they will be able to do is remains to be seen, in a game where it may be do or die for the Rossoneri.
What to look out for: Among those likely to return to the starting XI for Milan are Theo Hernandez, Loftus Cheek and Pulisic. They are still missing some key pieces such as Bennacer and Kalulu, but they are fielding a strong eleven. PSG are also missing a few players, such as Kimpembe, Asensio and Mendes.
AC Milan to Win – 2.90
Draw – 3.60
PSG to Win – 2.33
Group A: Bayern Munich – Galatasaray, Wednesday, 21:00 CET, Allianz Arena, Munich
Perhaps those that will watch this game with the most intrigue are Manchester United fans. If Galatasaray manage a huge upset here, it will be almost impossible for the Red Devils to qualify. Judging by the game in Istanbul, it is not an impossible result, although Bayern’s performance in Der Klassiker would say otherwise. Galatasaray, on their part, can qualify even with a loss, if they avoid losing to United and win at Copenhagen. They played extremely well at home against Bayern, and were slightly unlucky to end up with 0 points. Bayern, on the other hand, have not lost a group match in over 5 years, meaning they are all but certain of qualifying out of this deceptively tough group. If United fail to win away to Copenhagen, it is likely that both of these side will qualify regardless of this result. Galatasaray will be confident regardless of a loss at the Allianz, which seems probable, if they manage a result at home against United. In other words, its time to get your calculators out after this game.
What to look out for: Both teams are essentially playing with their strongest lineups, as the only injury of note being De Ligt’s for Bayern. Kane is on fire for the bavarians, having scored 17 goals in 14 games in all competitions so far. Playing his as anytime goalscorer is a highly convenient move.
Bayern Munich to Win – 1.22
Draw – 7.50
Galatasaray to Win – 10.00
Group B: Arsenal – Sevilla, Wednesday, 21:00 CET, Emirates Stadium, London
Qualification is at the door for the Gunners with a win at home against Sevilla. Arsenal will be looking to bounce back after their controversial loss to Newcastle on Saturday – their first of the season. Sevilla on the other hand desperately need a result keep their dreams of qualification alive, with Lens three points ahead of them. Arsenal could likely end up winning this group with three points against Sevilla, as they next face Lens at home. They’ve conceded three goals in their last two games in the competition, and they’ll have to be more careful. Sevilla can be a tricky side to face if they close up shop at the back and attack on the counter, especially since they are good at keeping the ball. Martinelli and Saka will play a key role for the Gunners, as they will be taking on the older Acuna and Jesus Navas. We have Arsenal winning this game relatively comfortably, so look out for another Sevilla masterclass in the Europa League.
What to look out for: Arsenal are missing some key players for this clash. Smith-Rowe, Gabriel Jesus, Odegaard and Partey should all miss out, which would leave the Gunners a bit vulnerable in midfield.
Arsenal to Win – 1.32
Draw – 5.50
Sevilla to Win – 9.00