The Champions League is finally back after a couple weeks off, as the Quarterfinal stage is ready to take off. We have some amazing clashes to look forward to in the next couple of days – from a replay of last year’s semifinal, to old coaches facing their past teams – the narratives are strong this time around. Can Arsenal make the semifinal for the first time in over 15 years? Will PSG have a run to the final? Or will Real Madrid triumph once again on the European stage? Let’s find out and preview this week’s matchups.
Real Madrid – Manchester City, Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid, Tuesday 21:00CET
In a replay of last year’s semifinal, Real Madrid host Manchester City once again, for the third edition of the Champions League in a row. Arguably the two best teams in Europe this season, Whichever of the two advances to the semifinal will undoubtedly be the favorite to win the entire competition. This game promises fireworks: both sides have various deficiencies and injuries in defense, meaning the game will be as open as ever. Kyle Walker will be unavailable to battle against Vinicius Jr on the left flank, while Alaba and Courtois are still out for Real madrid with longstanding knee injuries. Unlike in last year’s semifinals, where the sides drew 1-1 at the Bernabeu before City demolished Real at the Etihad 4-0, the addition of Jude Bellingham is a game-changer for the Spanish side.
The two teams couldn’t have had more different Round of 16 ties: City cruised through their tie against Copenhagen, winning both matches by 3-1, while Real struggled mightily against RB Leipzig, who arguably should have taken the tie at least to Extra Time in Madrid after losing at home by one goal. With that being said, this will be a thoroughly enjoyable tie between arguably the two best teams in Europe. However, unlike Real who have all but wrapped up the Liga, City are in an intense fight for the Premier League title with Arsenal and Liverpool. The Citizens have conceded at least a gol in six of their last eight matches, but have also not lost since early December away at Aston Villa. Real, on the other hand, only lost two games all season, both against Atletico (once in the league and once in the Copa del Rey). This is a tough tie to call, at the Bernabeu I have to give Real the slightestv edge, although a draw would certainly not surprise me. Expect both teams to score.
Real Madrid to Win – 2.71
Draw – 3.40
Man City to Win – 2.57
Arsenal – Bayern Munich, Emirates Stadium, London, Tuesday 21:00CET
A nighmarishly nostalgic tie for Arsenal, who lost 10-2 on aggregate to Bayern Munich the last time they were in the Champions League. However, this time around the narrative is quite different. Arsenal are currently in pole position for the Premier League title – though they are tied on points with Liverpool, but ahead in terms of goal difference. Meanwhile, Bayern will likely lose their first Bundesliga title in 11 years to Xabi Alonso’s Bayer Leverkusen this weekend, who are yet to lose a single game this season. The Gunners have had an amazing 2024 so far, but have struggled in their Round of 16 tie against Porto, which they managed to overcome on penalties at the Emirates Stadium after losing the first tie in Portugal 1-0. Arsenal will certianly need to perform much better than they did in the Roun fo 16 if they are to get the better of Bayern, especially considering the return leg is in Munich. Much like City, Arsenal have a dense schedule at the end of the season, and still need to play the likes of Spurs, Villa, United and Chelsea in the league: will this be a factor in the outcome of their Champions league tie?
This year’s Bayern Munich have been a bit all over the place, and they only made the Quarterfinal stage of this competiton because their Round of 16 opponents, Lazio, are having a torrid season of their own. The arrival of Harry Kane has certianly brtough a mountain of gaols for the Bavarian side, but their real issues are in midfield and at the back this season, as no one has been able to screen for the defense, and their center backs have been out of form completely this year – most of all France international Dayot Upamecano. Arsenal need to win this game at home if they want to advance, anything less then a win will certiainly complicate their plans, as I still don’t see them winning at the Allianz Arena, although I may be wrong. I suggest playing the Over 3, as both teams can score many goals, whie Bayern can also condede quite a few as we’ve seen this past weekend at Heidenheim.
Arsenal to Win – 1.70
Draw – 4.00
Bayern Munich to Win – 4.75
Atletico Madrid – Borussia Dortmund, Wanda Metropolitano, Madrid, Wednesday 21:00CET
Perhaps the least hyped tie of the round, but that does not necessarily mean that it woun’t be an entertaining and tense affair. The first leg comes at the Wanda Metropolitano, where Atletico have been near-infallible this season, excpet for a heavy loss to Barcelona. What is interesing about both them and Real Madrid is that they have played only one game in over three weeks due to the international break and Copa del Rey final this weekend. Whether that means they’ll be rested and ready to the on the German side remains to be seen. In the Round of 16, Atletico upset last year’s finalists Inter on penalties at home after a torried first leg where they could easily have conceded two or three more goals. They will need to win at home agaionst Borussia if they want to have a chance at advancing, as their away form has been rather terrible all season long, especially if we consider the stadium and atmosphere they’ll have to face in Dortmund.
On the flip side, Borussia Dortmund have been an inconsistent team all year long – advancing in first place in the Group of Death but currently finding themselves outisde the top 4 in the Bundesliga albeit having won at the Allianz arena aginst Bayern Munich just ten days ago before losing at home to Stuttgart. They hav tough matches against Leverkusen and Leipzig coming up in the league as well – games they’ll have to take points from if they want to play in the Champions League again next season. This could take away physical and mental energy from what is probaly the weakest side left in the competition. However, underestinamte Dortmund at your own peril: I predict an Atletico win at the Metropolitano tomorrow (with Morata anytime scorer) but the return leg may yet hold a few surprises.
Atletico Madrid to Win – 1.81
Draw – 3.60
Borussia Dortmund to Win – 4.50
Paris Saint Germain – Barcelona, Parc des Princes, Paris, Wednesday 21:00CET
Perhaps surprisingly, this is the Quarterfinals tie I am personally looking forward to the most this week. Maybe its the narratives surrounding it: Luis Enrique back at the club which he led to Champions League glory in 2015, Mbappe potentially getting a taste of the El Clasico he may play next season, or simply the fact that this was one of the best ties in the history of this competteion a few years back, when the Catalonians erased a 4-0 deficit from the first leg with an astounding 6-1 win at the Camp Nou. But most of all, everything points to these two sides being evenly matched. PSG, incredibly, have not lost a gme in all competitions since late October, when they lost 2-1 against AC Milan in the group stages, Barcelona started the season in a very inconsistent fashion, but have been quite steady so far in 2024, only losing twice in January against Bilbao in the cup and Villarreal in the league. The fact that the return leg is in Barcelona perhaps gives the Blaugrana a slight edge over the Parisians.
PSG will need to hit Barca on the flanks with Mbappe’s energy and Dembele facing his former club, but the real battle will be fought in midfield, where Ugarte and Zaire Emery will need to limit Gundogan and De Jong’s creative abilities. Barca faced a few issues against a struggling napoli side in the Round of 16, before eventually putting the tie to bed. They will need to perform much better if they are to avoid defeat at the hands of PSG on Wednesday night. I predict an inspired Mbappe performance – the French champion knows this is his last shot at making a deep Champions League run wit the Parisian side. There will certainly be goals, so much so that I would highly recommend an Over 3, or even an Over 3.5 if you feel like taking more of a risk. A draw is also a sinsible choice at 3.20.
PSG to Win – 2.00
Draw – 3.20
Barcelona to Win – 3.50
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