The Champions League Round of 16 draws to a close this week, as we’ll finally have our updated lineup for this year’s Quarterfinal stage. We had some close ties last week, as well as decisive comebacks, but the outcome was clear: the top teams rarely approach two straight games in the Champions league in the wrong manner. Bayern turned their tie around against a poor Lazio side in the first half of their return leg, while Real struggled against a spirited Leipzig team. In addition, Manchester City and PSG showed their opponents no mercy, winning their second legs just as decisively as their first ones. This week, who will join these four teams in the final eight ahead of the Quarterfinals draw on Friday afternoon? Let’s take a closer look and see the possible outcomes.

Arsenal – Porto, Emirates Stadium, London, Tuesday 21:00 CET

While Arsenal have been flying in the Premier League, where they currently sit first following Sunday’s thrilling draw between Liverpool and City, they will need to play likewise in this fixture if they are to recover the deficit from the first leg. They incredibly managed zero shots on target in the Dragao three weeks ago, after scoring an incredible fourteen goals in their three previous matches in the league, including a 6-0 thrashing away at West Ham. Porto defended remarkably well, limiting Martinelli and Saka on the wings and countering effectively, including for the last minute winner by Galeno, whose spectacular curling effort gives the Portuguese side the advantage coming into this match. Porto, meanwhile, have scored eight goals in their last two league matches, including five against historic opponents Benfica, whom they are still chasing in the league.

It is without a doubt true that Arsenal are favourites in this game, as their home form has been nothing short of spectacular so far this season. Their attacking firepower could cause Porto significant problems, but that is not to say that the Dragoes won;t be able to withstand the Gunners’ onslaught. Led by a 41-year old Pepe, Porto will sit back and try to absorb Arsenal’s pressure before countering with their pacy offensive players. I would suggest a risky play of a Porto double chance at 3.50. While that is perhaps not a likely outcome, it is the best value for money. If you want a lesser-risk play, Arsenal to win in regular time at 1.70 is probably best choice.

Arsenal to Win – 1.27

Draw – 5.75

Porto to Win – 11.00

Barcelona – Napoli, Estadi Olimpic Lluis Companys, Barcelona, Tuesday 21:00 CET

This is avery tough tie to call, as both teams have been relatively, if not outrightly, disappointing this season. They both won their respective league titles last year, but have failed to even compete at retaining their crown this season. Barcelona, whose manager Xavi is set to leave at the ned of the season, have had to deal with a number of heavy injuries throughout the year, including a torn ACL for star midfielder Gavi. In fact, they will head into this clash without the likes of him, Pedri. De Jong, Balde and, probably, Ferran Torres. Injuries notwithstanding, Barcelona are now just a point away from second-place Girona, and eight from Real madrid atop the Liga. Napoli meanwhile have been on a mini-resurgence after the arrival of their third manager this season, Calzona. While they’ve only won two out of their five matches under the new manager, their playing style has been convincing and they are yet to lose with him at the helm.

Barcelona, being the home team, will have the slight advantage as we enter this clash. They are unbeaten in their last eight games, but have somewhat struggled upfront, even though the number may say otherwise. Napoli have conceded in each game under Calzona so far, starting from the reverse fixture at the San Paolo where these side drew 1-1. They have also scored eleven goals during that span however, as Kvaratskhelia has returned to last year’s levels. I predict an Over 2.5 at 1.68. For a riskier bet, play Napoli to qualify at 2.71 or the game to go to overtime at 3.60, as this will likely be a close, intense fight.

Barcelona to Win – 1.81

Draw – 4.00

Napoli to Win – 4.00

Atletico Madrid – Inter, Wanda Metropolitano, Madrid, Wednesday 21:00 CET

This matchup is probably the most intriguing one of the week. Inter are perhaps the best team in Europe this season and are running away with the Serie A title, leading the league by 16 points with 10 games to go. On the other hand, Atletico Madrid are one of, if not the, best team in Europe at home this season. Their record at the Metropolitano is outstanding compared to the road one, which is actually quite mediocre. Unsurprisingly they lost the first leg at the San Siro 1-0, but it could have been so much worse for the Spanish side. The Colchoneros have lost just one game at home tis season, and it was against Bilbao in the Copa del Rey. They have, however, hit a bit of a dip in form recently overall, winning just two of their last nine games (only three of which were at hone). Inter on the flip side have won every single game they’ve played in 2024 and are on a 13-match winning streak at the moment. It seems nothing can stop the Nerazzurri at this point, and we’ll see how they’ll fare against better opposition if they advance to the next stage.

Something will have to give in this game. Either Atletico’s near-perfect home record will be blemished for just the second time this season, or Inter’s insane winning streak will come to an end. I am thoroughly convinced that Inter this year re among the top 3 challengers for the Champions League title – along with City and Real Madrid, so I will back them in this game, however uncomfortably. A draw is probably a good shout in this match, even though its listed at 3.33 and obviously a relatively risky play. If you’re feeling lucky, Marcus Thuram have Atletico hell in the first leg: 3.50 for him to score anytime in this one. For a better alternative, try the Under 2.5 listed at 1.77.

Atletico Madrid to Win – 2.80

Draw – 3.33

Inter to Win – 2.54

Borussia Dortmund – PSV, Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund, Wednesday 21:00 CET

This is also an unpredictable tie to some degree. Borussia have not been playing particularly well in the Bundesliga, and find themselves just one point ahead of fifth-placed Leipzig. PSV are on a completely opposite trend: we have never seen such a dominant force in the Eredivisie, as the side from Eindhoven have won 22 of their 25 league matches this season, drawing the other three. Their dominance in the league has not necessarily translated into the European competition, as they were probably lucky to draw at hoe with Dortmund 1-1 in the reverse fixture. A controversial penalty by Luuk De Jong sealed the draw after former PSV forward Malen had given the German side the advantage. This could end up being a very strange tie where neither team plays particularly well and yet manages to reach the Quarterfinals of the Champions League.

I have to give Dortmund the benefit of the doubt. They’ve been pretty poor recently, but usually manage a result at home. In the so-called “group of death”, they advanced in top spot, drawing at home to PSG and AC Milan, as well as beating Newcastle in the process. IF PSV do make it through, that would be the added sparkle to an already remarkable season. Wit that being said, I suggest playing Borussia Dortmund to Qualify at 1.60 for those willing to take a lesser risk, or to simply win the match outright at 2.14 if you want to risk it a little more.

Borussia Dortmund to Win – 2/16

Draw – 3.75

PSV to Win – 3.10

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