The 2023/24 season is officially back: the Premier League, La Liga and Bundesliga are already underway, with Serie A and the Bundesliga following suit later this week. However, let’s not forget about European competitions: the Conference, Europa and Champions League playoffs have already been underway for weeks, and will determine which sides have what it takes to make the group stages. And the UEFA Super Cup is also being played on Wednesday August 16th! Last season’s Champions and Europa League winners Manchester City and Sevilla FC are facing off in Piraeus, Greece, for this season’s first major European trophy.
Previous Encounters
The English and Spanish sides have only faced each other four times in their history, with Manchester City winning every encounter. Interestingly, they always faced off in the Champions League group stages, twice in 2015 and twice last season, on the way to their respective European final successes, which saw Manchester City defeat Inter Milan 1-0 and Sevilla overcome AS Roma on penalties.
Last season’s encounters were dominated by the English side, who defeated Sevilla 0-4 away in September before winning again in England 3-1 the following month.
Analysis
Manchester City obviously had an extraordinary campaign last season, as the English side won a treble and their striker Erling Haaland broke the Premier League goalscoring record in a single season by finding the back of the net a whopping 36 times. They have had a bit of a change-up in their first-team squad with the likes of Gundogan and Mahrez leaving the club in July but have also brought in two solid Croatian players in Mateo Kovacic and Josko Gvardiol. Although their season may not have gotten off to the greatest start – City lost the Community Shield to Arsenal on penalties last weekend – Cthey have lost the trophy three years in a row, but have found massive success in the seasons after regardless.
Sevilla on the other hand had an underwhelming domestic campaign last season, finishing 12th with 49 points. Their season was salvaged by a Europa league victory over AS Roma in Budapest, which landed them a 1st pot spot in this year’s Champions League. They have not been very active in the transfer window, much like many other La Liga sides this summer, only bringing in Loic Bade after a spell on loan last season with the club, and Swiss midfielder Djibril Sow from Eintracht Frankfurt.
Predictions and Odds
Don’t expect any upsets in this game. Manchester City have only lost three European matches in the last two seasons – and they all came in 2021/22 – when they were defeated in the group stages by PSG and RB Leipzig, and the famous semi-final loss at the Bernabeu to Real Madrid. The English side were essentially perfect in their run to a Champions League title last season, bar a few worrying defensive moments in the final. Sevilla have struggled against major opposition in Europe and have found a home against slightly weaker opponents in the Europa League. They crashed out in the group stages of the Champions League last season with a single win in six matches.
Considering the recent encounters between the two sides it is likely Sevilla will sit back and try to absorb Man City’s intense passing and pressure around the opposition box. Manchester City will look to patiently break down the Spaniards. Once that happens, the floodgates may open, as Sevilla will inevitably have to risk something if they want to take anything away from this winner-takes-all match. Manchester City have been very solid at the back last campaign, so a good odd to try your luck on could be the NO on “Both Teams to Score” at 1.66. If, like me, you believe there will be goals in this match, you can try playing the “Over 3” at 2.45, or “Man City to win by 3+” at 3.60.
Manchester City Win – 1.40
Draw – 4.75
Sevilla Win – 8.50
