This season’s Champions League group stage is quickly drawing to a close: who will reach the Round of 16? There are some cracking matches to look forward to once again. Some teams have already qualified, but others are battling it out amongst each other for a chance at glory. Who will prevail and who will crash out? Lets take an in-depth look and find out!
Group F: AC MIlan – Borussia Dortmund, Tuesday, 21:00 CET, San Siro, Milan
The Group of Death continues to give us tasty fixtures, as Dortmund travel to Milan to take on the Rossoneri. This match will likely determine the outcome for both sides, as Dortmund sit top of the group at 7 points. PSG Follow in second at 6, and Milan right after at 5. This is easily the most competitive group this year and we can expect more upsets in the matchdays to come. Both teams come into this game following a domestic victory in the league. Milan defeated Fiorentina 1-0 with a Hernandez penalty, while Dortmund won 3-2 against Monchengladbach. They are also on similar trajectories in their respective leagues, with Dortmund 4th in the Bundesliga, while Milan sit third. This will likely be a close game, as was the opposing fixture in Dortmund which ended 0-0.
This time around, both sides need to get a result: Dortmund would qualify with a win, while a Milan victory would ensure that even a draw at Newcastle would suffice. In terms of squad availability, Milan are missing their star man Leao for this clash, as well as Kalulu, Bennacer, Kjaer and a suspended Musah. Dortmund have an injury crisis of their own, as Sule and Sabitzer are likely out for this one, along with Nmecha. We predict a tight game here: Milan have not lost at home in the Champions League so far this season, but Dortmund do top the group. An Under 2.5 could be a good call, although the game may open up more in the second half. This is a very difficult fixture to call, so we’ll opt for the draw in this one, which would help neither team.
What to look out for: Without the explosiveness of Leao, look for Milan to play more down the middle, with Loftus-Cheek linking up with Giroud. Dortmund will try to exploit Malen down the wing in a mismatch with Milan’s RB Davide Calabria.
AC Milan to Win – 2.14
Draw – 3.50
Dortmund to Win – 3.33
Group F: PSG – Newcastle United, Tuesday, 21:00 CET, Parc des Princes, Paris
The other matchup in Group F sees a desperate Newcastle travel to PSG in search of much needed points. The Magpies sit bottom of the group, but ironically only three points away from first place. Although they’ve been inconsistent in the league, Newcastle sit seven points behind leaders Arsenal, while PSG top Ligue 1. This game will determine the outcome of Newcastle’s European season. If the Magpies lose, they could find it almost impossible to qualify for the Europa League. Only a win can keep them in contention, so Howe’s side will have to go at from the get go. Newcastle have failed to score a goal away from home, while PSG shut out Milan and Dortmund in 3-0 and 2-0 wins. This will be a very tough match for Newcastle, who is facing the group’s best team away from home.
If PSG get a result, that would put them in a good position for qualification. In that case, they would be ahead of Milan regardless, although they are yet to face Dortmund in Germany. We see PSG as heavy favourites here, not least due to Newcastle’s insane injury crisis. PSG have been playing very well at home, and will look to avenge their 4-1 defeat at St. James’s Park. Newcastle’s need for a result will inevitably mean that they will force the issue, which is when PSG will hot them with the pace of Mbappe and Dembele. We suggest and Over 2.5 in this match, with Mbappe as Anytime Goalscorer.
What to look out for: PSG are missing Zaire Emery and Marquinhos, replaced by Mukiele and Ruiz. Newcastle travel to France without Tonali (suspended), Wilson, Burn, Barnes, Murphy, Anderson and Botman.
PSG to Win – 1.69
Draw – 4.20
Newcastle to Win – 4.50
Group A: Galatasaray – Manchester United, Wednesday, 18:45 CET, Rams Global Stadium, Istanbul
Manchester United travel to fiery Istanbul to keep their hopes of qualification alive after losing to Copenhagen last time out. This is a group-defining match, as Galatasaray sit joint second with Copenhagen, while United follow in last one point behind. The fact that United host Bayern in the final game means they are forced to leave Istanbul with three points. United have conceded an astonishing 11 goals in their 4 group games so far, an average of almost three a game. Galatasaray haven’t been much better, conceding 9, but have already played Bayern twice. United, much like Newcastle, Dortmund and Milan, are also in the midst of an injury crisis.
The stadium factor for Galatasaray may play the part for the Turkish side. United lost away to both Bayern and Copenhagen, interestingly both by a 4-3 scoreline. However, Galatasaray have also not won at home, drawing to Copenhagen and losing to Bayern. This is not a major worry for the Turkish side, as a draw will suffice for them considering United host Bayern in two weeks. United are particularly light up front at the moment, so Galatasaray will just sit back and hit on the counter. We see this being a low-scoring game, and watch out for a United upset: they won 3-0 away at Everton this weekend. For a low-risk bet, go for a United double chance.
What to look out for: United travel to Turkey without the likes of Casemiro, Eriksen, Martinez, Mount and Rashford (suspended). Hojlund is also doubtful after receiving a knock in an earlier match.
Galatasaray to Win – 2.57
Draw – 3.66
United to win – 2.57
Group C: Real Madrid – Napoli, 21:00 CET, Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid
The biggest game of the round comes in Group C, as the Italian champions travel to Madrid to take on their former coach. madrid have already qualified after winning all four group games. Napoli, having drawn at home to Union Berlin in the last matchday, are in need of a result. If they lose at the Bernabeu and Braga defeat Berlin, Napoli would need to avoid a loss at home against the Portuguese side to qualify. Leaving the Bernabeu with any kind of result is no easy feat however. Napoli have recently sacked manager Rudi Garcia, and replaced him with their former coach Walter Mazzarri. They won away to Atalanta convincingly this weekend, and Osimhen’s return to the lineup gives them a massive boost.
Real lost Vinicius during the international break, but it seems like Rodrygo and Bellingham are winning games just fine. With Real already having qualified, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Ancelotti mixed up his starting XI to avoid further injuries. Napoli on the other hand need to give it a go, as any kind of result would help them massively. This is a tough game to call, but if Real field their best XI, it will be difficult for Napoli to cope defensively. They’ve hired a new manager during the international break and the players will need to some time to adjust. Look out for a Madrid win in this one, with Bellingham anytime goalscorer a good bet to play. Who will reach the Round of 16?
What to look out for: Osimhen returns to the staring lineup just in time for this major clash. Madrid will be without Tchouameni, Camavinga, Courtois, Militao and Vinicius Jr.
Real Madrid to Win – 1.87
Draw – 3.75
Napoli to Win – 4.00